The AP-900 is powered by two AAA batteries, and while it can cause an explosion like any other battery, we do not believe it would be as powerful or as large as the explosion allegedly depicted in the video of the explosion. It will be done. Even if the pagers used by Hezbollah are AR-924 or another model that runs on lithium-ion batteries that can cause more dangerous explosions, the batteries in regular pagers alone can injure multiple people. The possibility of an explosion remains low.
“That explosion was more than just a battery,” said Jake Williams, vice president of research and development at Hunter Strategy, who formerly worked for the National Security Agency. “According to reports, these pagers were seized by Israeli authorities and likely modified with explosives. This highlights the security risks in the supply chain, especially in places where technology is difficult to ship.”
Gold Apollo did not immediately respond to WIRED’s request for comment.
Williams notes that such an operation would likely involve operatives from both the technology distribution and Hezbollah procurement sides. “We don’t want to have thousands of explosive pagers running around Lebanon, which would put the supply chain at risk,” he said. “The mole guides them to just the right person.”
Some reports on Tuesday said Hezbollah had recently expanded its use of pagers to secure communications after Israeli intelligence infiltrated other channels. The Associated Press reported that an anonymous “Hezbollah official” said Hezbollah had recently adopted a “new brand” of pagers that “first heats up and then explodes.”
“It is unlikely that hacking was involved, as there would likely have been explosives inside the pager to cause such an effect,” said the independent consultant and professor at King’s College London. Lukasz Olejnik, visiting senior fellow at the School of War Studies, said: “There have been reports recently that new pagers have been delivered, so perhaps the delivery was compromised.”
Michael Horowitz, head of information at Le Bec International, a risk management firm in the Middle East and North Africa, said that if an attack were supply chain-based, it would take years to prepare, infiltrate suppliers, and send new pagers to new pagers. He says it is possible that work such as planting explosives was necessary.
“This is a significant security breach, and I think this is the most likely scenario, especially when you’re talking about a charge built up inside the device,” Horowitz says. “This means that Israel has managed to infiltrate Hezbollah’s providers to the point of providing them with hundreds (if not thousands) of devices used for secure communications.”
The incident comes as fighting between Israel and Hezbollah has escalated in recent months, raising fears of a full-scale war. Hours before Tuesday’s explosion, Israel said its war goals include allowing the 60,000 people who fled after the Hezbollah attack to return to northern Israel, and that it did not rule out military action.
Horowitz said the incident was a “prelude to a broader attack” and may have been intended to disrupt Hezbollah’s communications networks. Replacing a large number of pagers can be time consuming to organize. Alternatively, the attack could have been carried out to demonstrate “the scale of Israeli intelligence infiltration,” Horowitz said.
