Texas Tech and Cincinnati will face off tonight in Lubbock in what most predict will be a decisive game. These two teams each come into the game with a 3-1 record, but there are questions about both.
Tech started the year terrible in the first two games. However, back-to-back wins over North Texas and Arizona State seem to have steady the ship.
Still, it’s worth wondering if this Texas Tech team is actually getting better, or if it just looks better because it played two teams it should have beaten in Lubbock in the first place. be. Meanwhile, Cincinnati has exceeded expectations so far by winning three of their first four games, considering the Bearcats’ three wins have come against teams with a combined two wins. Is it stupid money?
Therefore, to understand this game better, let’s take a look at what the statistics show. Here are some important numbers to know ahead of Texas Tech’s second Big 12 game.
One aspect of the game that can play a big role when two evenly matched teams play is penalties. That’s not good news for Texas Tech in this game.
The Red Raiders currently rank 115th in the nation in penalty yards per game. They average 76.7 penalty yards each game. Additionally, Tech has been penalized at least eight times in every game this season, and the Red Raiders have received double-digit infractions twice in one game.
Meanwhile, Cincinnati has one of the fewest penalties in the nation. They rank 32nd in the nation in penalty yards per game at 42.2. The most penalties the Bearcats have endured in a game so far is six.
Tech will be lucky to get past the Bearcats tonight if the penalty differential between both teams is large. That would be a remarkable statistic.
Texas Tech fans already know that the Red Raider defense is statistically one of the worst in the country. They allow 440.0 yards per game, which ranks 120th in the nation.
But Cincinnati’s defense is just as bad. The Bearcats are giving up 389.0 yards per game, ranking 90th in the nation in total defense.
Cincy plays a version of the 3-3-5 crowd defense that Iowa State popularized nationally. In fact, defensive coordinator Tyson Veidt has been with the Cyclones for the past eight seasons.
Still, the Bearcats struggled defensively. Aside from holding a rotten Houston offense to 233 yards in a 34-0 win last week, they’ve allowed every other opponent to accumulate at least 380 yards of total offense this year. He also allowed 438 yards to Townson, an FCS team.
Let’s see if Tech can perform tonight. The 3-3-5 defense should just allow teams to run the ball and crowd the ball carriers in numbers. However, Cincy is giving up 140.5 yards per game on the ground, which ranks 75th in the nation.
These numbers suggest that even though the Bearcats are implementing a plan that has proven effective in other programs, they may not yet have the talent to execute it. That means there is. Therefore, the Red Raiders will be able to find success in tonight’s football.
The Red Raider defense has been very solid in the red zone this year, allowing opponents to score on just 78.9% of their chances thus far, ranking 49th. Defensive coordinator Tim DeRuyter’s ball side will need to be a strong area tonight as Cincinnati has struggled to convert inside the opposing half this year.
The Bearcats are shooting just 76.4% from the red zone through four games, which ranks only 107th in the nation. In total, Cincy had 17 red zone chances but only scored on 13 of them. Additionally, just nine of those 17 outings scored a touchdown (52.9%).
One of the things that hurt Cincy in the red zone was the kicking situation. Twice this year, the Bearcats have missed FGs where the ball was snapped inside the red zone. I hope their shortcomings in the top 20 continue tonight.
In toss-up games, coaches are often put in positions where they have to make tough decisions. Usually this happens on 4th down.
The Bearcats only won on fourth down three times this year. However, they have three wins and three losses so far, and are tied for first in the nation in fourth down conversion rate.
It’s worth remembering that all three of these conversion attempts were 4-and-1s. So the Red Raiders likely won’t have to worry too much about the Bearcats being overly aggressive on fourth down.
Will that change the way Texas Tech head coach Joey McGwire approaches fourth downs when his team has the football? Last week, he didn’t do it once on fourth down, only the second time in his tenure at Texas Tech that he didn’t.
That strategy paid off in a ball-control game against Arizona State last Saturday. Don’t be surprised to see if McGuire remains conservative tonight.
It’s unlikely Cincy will put up big numbers on the scoreboard, at least not so much that Tech will need to be overly aggressive on fourth down. Additionally, the Bearcats don’t have an explosive offense, so it makes sense to give them long fields to drive. So don’t expect this game to go down to 4th down.
