September Q&A puts hurricane season in Texas in the rearview mirror, but many of the questions we tackle this month are hurricane-related. Oh, except for the humidity and pool water stories!
Do you have a question you’d like us to consider next month? Reply in the comments section below or use the (contact us) link on the blog’s home page.
Q: As I’ve gotten older and experienced Ike and Beryl in Pearland, I’ve become less willing to endure another big storm so close to the coast. If a Category 4 or 5 were to hit somewhere near Freeport or Galveston, would living in a place like Magnolia or Katy really offer much more protection than Pearland? Beryl’s Afterwards, we drove to Dallas and saw fallen trees all the way to about halfway through Madisonville.
A. You know, I thought the same thing when I defeated Beryl in League City. It was an unpleasant experience. (Personal note: I’m not much of a storm chaser. I appreciate the videos and images they take, but I like them far away, thank you). I used to think I would stay put if a Category 1 or Category 2 hurricane hit, but with Beryl the trees are shaking so much, I’m not so sure anymore.
Regarding what you asked, there is no question that Magnolia (especially) and Katy are on average less wind affected than areas closer to the coast, including Pearland. However, much depends on the strength of the hurricane, the angle at which it hits the coast, and the speed at which it moves inland. Let’s take a look at a pretty good gust forecast for Beryl.
Gusty wind forecast just before Beryl makes landfall. (weather bell)
This isn’t what actually happened, but it’s pretty close and exemplifies what I want to talk about. Notice how close to the track and core is important, especially when the strongest winds blow. Some areas of Galveston County near the water’s edge experienced well below hurricane-force wind gusts, but areas north of Montgomery County, including San Jacinto County, were vulnerable to hurricane-force wind gusts. It is over 100 miles from the coast.
The important thing here is that there are a lot of variables. But in general, the farther you live from the coast, the less likely you are to experience significant wind damage from a hurricane. But that doesn’t mean there’s zero possibility.
– Eric
Q: (A) Are there any historical trends or data to predict “strong” winter weather (e.g., very cold) based on low hurricane season activity related to Houston? Beyond the broader impact on the United States? Given that our weather patterns are interconnected, with high pressure dragging hurricanes and low pressure pushing them forward;
A: So the simple answer is no. There is no consistent way to use hurricane season as a guide to next winter. I often hear people say, “It’s going to snow this winter because of the hurricane!” Back in 2021, I wrote a section dedicated to Houston in my winter outlook. Historically, hurricane strikes in Houston didn’t really mean anything, showing that the probability of snow in a normal winter is about the same as the probability of snow. Snow falls in the winter after a hurricane.
But in a broader sense, a weather company (WDT, I believe it’s now part of DTN) published an article a few years ago correlating accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) with winter temperatures. However, little correlation was found. The atmosphere is a complex and unique weather phenomenon like a hurricane, whether frequent or infrequent, which is unlikely to have a noticeable effect on the weather for the entire season 3-4 months later.
Several studies have attempted to quantify this on a hemispheric scale, with some results. A professor at Florida State University did some good research on this. So I think we might eventually be able to glean something from all of this, but it’s unlikely that it’s due to activity in one ocean basin.
– mat
Q. I love your content. I’m curious, the model you cited (during your hurricane coverage) sounds similar to the one we’ve been using. Are there any AI models in development? Can we just throw them all into the AI and see what it thinks…
A1.This year is the first year that we actually started using AI models as a tool for hurricane prediction. (If you want to know how they work compared to traditional physics-based models, I wrote a long article here). We’ll have to get there by the end of hurricane season to know exactly how well they performed. At that point, several comprehensive studies will be conducted to calculate how well the AI-based model coped with the hurricane’s path compared to the physics-based model. But my feeling is that it’s surprisingly useful for a new product. These are another tool in our arsenal that we see every day. Matt might have some thoughts on this too.
– Eric
A2: I would like to add that the European AI model (AIFS) has performed surprisingly well, especially for this year’s Gulf Storm. This was established early on and tended to guide other models in the right direction. As I used this tool on a daily basis, I also noticed that sometimes there are skills to avoid risks to the forecast, such as cooling down in the middle of summer. perfection? No. Does it help? I think so. This winter, the AI suite will be tested to see how reliable it is in identifying cold wave and snowstorm risk in the Midwest/Northeast. But they are now firmly in my daily toolkit. –
-mat
Q: There may be an obvious and easy answer to this, but why do I always fill my pool in the humid summer? Dry air quickly absorbs pool water (humidity) But I don’t think air that is already saturated with water will absorb that much.
A: This is an interesting question. your assumption is correct. Higher air humidity tends to reduce evaporation of water in the pool. So the question becomes, what is going on?
One possible cause could be exposure to sunlight. If you have a sunny area and limited tree coverage, you will have to deal with evaporation, even with high humidity. Another possible explanation may be that we experienced a very dry period in August. The spigot stayed closed for a long time, which probably didn’t help. Beyond these two explanations, there may be something else going on. It’s probably something pool maintenance personnel should keep an eye on just to be sure.
-mat
Hurricane Francine approached the northern Gulf Coast on September 11th (NOAA)
Q. I noticed that the many major hurricanes that formed in the Gulf of Mexico in September and October tended to affect Louisiana and Florida more than Texas. I’m interested in the reason behind this pattern. For example, does it have something to do with the location of the Bermuda High or seasonal changes in weather patterns? Also, is it common for hurricanes to stop making landfall in Texas after mid-September, or is it a historical phenomenon? Are there any exceptions?
A. I noticed this phenomenon nearly 20 years ago and did a little research and found that the historical chance of a hurricane hitting Texas after September 24th is about 1 in 50. So every year around this day, I write about how Texas’ hurricane season is almost over. (Click here for this year’s article). At some point, I’ll probably end up being embarrassingly wrong about this, but in general, if things look quiet by September 24th, it’s safe to assume the hurricane threat is over. And I’m talking about hurricanes. It is more likely to be a tropical cyclone or a cyclone.
There are solid reasons for this. Generally, as we approach the end of September, the patterns in the sky begin to change as the jet stream begins to move south. This creates a generally easterly flow that is not seen in August or early September. A good indicator of this is when the first cold front starts to appear (we’ve already had two this month). Of course, the big risk here is that the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico are still warm enough for hurricanes in October, so the threat exists. Meteorologically speaking, however, it will be difficult for these storms to move westward into Texas. Let me tell you, it’s not a joke.
–Eric
